Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

364
FXUS61 KBGM 020622
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
122 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold weather advisory issued for the Poconos and parts of the
Catskills.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer conditions this week, but still below average.

2) West northwest flow brings lake effect snow showers Tuesday
into midweek, followed by a clipper system late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Tonight will be the last night with any cold weather headlines
until next weekend. Ridging builds in to start the work week
tomorrow and this will help increase temperatures across the
region. High temperatures on Monday will feel like a relief,
even though it will only get into the 20s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A short wave passes through the region Tuesday into Wednesday with
returning west to northwest flow. This will kick off more lake
effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario especially over
central NY. This pattern holds through most of mid week keeping
lake effect showers through Thursday as well. Attention then
shifts to a clipper system that tracks north of our region
Friday into Saturday. This has potential to bring widespread
snow to the area. Confidence in how much and the exact track
remains low at this time. This system could be an overachiever,
simply because the snow to liquid ratios may be quite high, but
these details will not be better know until later this week.

Behind this system, models are in good agreement that another
arctic air mass pushes in on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures
falling to 22C to 25C below zero. At this time, it appears that
these Arctic temperatures next weekend could be short-lived, as
models are hinting at a nice warm ridge building the start of
next week. We can only hope that this is the case, but
nonetheless, we will all have to at least face another 2 to 3
nights of below zero readings through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Skies have cleared for many locations early this morning, with
VFR conditions for all of our NY TAF sites currently. A band of
lingering MVFR clouds extends from east of BGM down south to
AVP, with AVP expected to remain MVFR until about 08z early this
morning. Indications are that another band of MVFR/IFR clouds
will develop over Central NY toward daybreak (10-12z) and this
could also have some freezing fog, mist and/or snow flurries
associated with it...especially at SYR and RME. RME remains MVFR
through about 17-18z today, while SYR could stay MVFR fuel alt
until later this afternoon (22z). Tempo for possible IFR vsby
restrictions was added for these two sites between 11-14z this
morning. Confidence overall is low to moderate on exactly where
this rather narrow band of MVFR/borderline IFR clouds will
develop and move through the day.

ITH and BGM should see the clouds fill back in with 010-020ft
CIGs between about 12-18z today at these two sites, before
becoming VFR in the afternoon and evening. ELM is expected to
remain VFR for the entire taf period based on the latest data.
AVP should become VFR before sunrise and remain VFR for the rest
of the taf period.

There is some sporadic LLWS at AVP and possible at ELM over the
next several hours, with winds at 2k ft agl out of the NW at 35
kts...the LLWS lasts longest at AVP, until around 12z this
morning.

Surface winds will be NW at 5-15 kts today, becoming light and
variable under 5 kts after sunset into tonight.

Outlook...

Late Tonight Through Tuesday: Stratus clouds redevelop and
expand, with widespread MVFR CIGs likely areawide.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning: Lingering MVFR stratus
clouds around the region. A few snow showers possible across
Central NY.

Wednesday Afternoon: Period of VFR possible at ELM, BGM and
AVP...better chance for BKN MVFR CIGs to remain at ITH, SYR and
RME in the cold NW flow.

Wednesday Night and Thursday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25% or
less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to
occasional lake effect snow showers at SYR and RME.

Friday...Restrictions likely with a system bringing periods of
snow, transitioning to snow showers and blowing snow Friday
night. Squalls possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ040-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ057-
     062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ES/MPK
AVIATION...MJM/MWG